Marlins - Mariners Near Miss

Jason Churchill, a Seattle 'net writer with strong contacts inside baseball, reports that the Marlins came close to a deal for Jose Lopez. He quotes a Marlins scout thusly:

"The deal was never close," he said, "because we wanted one particular name and their best offer came in without that name. They didn't budge on that name, and we couldn't see moving forward unless we got what we felt was the right deal for us."

Jason continues where the scout leaves off:

That name was Adam Moore, the M's top catching prospect, who ranks in the middle of Prospect Insider's Top 10 in the upcoming handbook. The trade, apparently, turned into a 4-for-2 deal, where Florida would have sent right fielder Jeremy Hermida and second base prospect Coghlan to the Mariners, for second baseman Jose Lopez, left-hander Ryan Rowland-smith, right-hander Juan Ramirez and catcher Adam Moore.

The Mariners countered with something like this: Lopez, Cesar Jimenez, Rob Johnson and either Luis Valbuena or Matt Tuiasosopo. The Fish wanted Moore in the deal, and Seattle apparently wanted no part of trading him, so Zduriencik moved on to the Mets.

First of all, we assume that Jason is saying that the Mariners swung the talks in directions other than J.J. Putz. This happens: you talk Putz and two guys, for those three guys, and you get interested in this second guy, and you go, "Well, how about a straight Lopez-for-Coghlan deal, does that interest you..."

This complex trade has many moving parts and is impossible to judge definitively, because exactly 0-for-6 of these players can be projected confidently.

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Jeremy Hermida looked terrific posting a 123 OPS+ as a 23-year-old. He's lefty and showed 25-homer power with a zillion doubles. Beautiful fit for Safeco?

Not so fast. The lad regressed all the way to 91 OPS+ last year, and that's despite nice luck on his .310 BABIP. A 91 OPS+ is one thing, but as a corner outfielder?

Of course, nobody's done at 24. Your view of this trade depends in large part whether you're bullish or bearish on Hermida. Jemanji? He's skeptical. His overall K/BB, CT%, speed, etc profiles look thin for surviving the AL/NL transition. I see Mike Marshall as Hermida's upside, and it could be a lot more modest than that.

Hermida is of course an intriguing talent, but my guess is he'll disappoint.

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Chris Coghlan (pictured) at 23 in AA, is a bit old to be a hot prospect. But he has a 1.00 eye ratio, 34 SB's, and ... hits lefty. Reminds me of a Richie Amaral type, but if you can add a lefthander to your lineup AT SECOND BASE in Safeco, you've really got something.

I'm quite fond of the Coghlan idea considering the home park.

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Jose Lopez hit almost .300, with a near-.500 SLG, in the second half last year. In that second half, he hit a prorated 27 homers with 95 RBI. Personally, I believe he's about ready to fulfill his Miguel Tejada potential.

Lopez gets a lot of grounders outside his defensive zone, is a converted SS, and with proper positioning could be a very good defensive 2B.

Lopez is one of the few RH hitters not hurt by Safeco, so the M's have no on-field pressures to deal him.

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Ryan Rowland-Smith is an ML-ready lefthander who has every chance to be a quality #4 starting pitcher in the big leagues, playing for peanuts. Just the kind of guy that Florida would want to get its fins on.

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Juan Ramirez is a blue-chip righthander who has been compared to Felix Hernandez. He's no throwin. He's a quality 2nd or 3rd piece to any deal, even one for a superstar.

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Adam Moore draws raves for his defense and also shows the potential to pop 25, 30 homers. Personally, I suspect the hype is more about MLB teams' enthusiasm for quick feet and a strong arm at catcher, but Moore's a good prospect at C.

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What is odd about this deal is the idea that the Mariners would give up Juan Ramirez and Jose Lopez, but choke on giving up a catcher who is maybe the #8 prospect in their system. According to Jason, the M's would rather have given up Matt Tuiasosopo than Ramirez and Moore. Obviously the M's super-dee-dooper love this Moore guy.

..............

The M's reported counter-offer stripped out a lot of quality in the 3-4 slots; Cesar Jimenez and Rob Johnson are going to be fringe MLB'ers and neither has upside. What should the Fish do, if they want Moore so badly? Go ahead and let the M's hold back Juan Ramirez, accepting Cesar Jimenez, and throw back something interesting, so that you have:

Hermida, Coghlan, sweetener ...for

Lopez, Moore, Jimenez and throwin

The Fish make out well in that deal. Jose Lopez is a more valuable commodity than Hermida IMHO, and Moore comps out well in value to Chris Coghlan.

Personally, I can't even see what Jack Zduriencik saw in the discussions. He must be a Jeremy Hermida fan.

Cheers,

jemanji