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Postgame April 23

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Sandy - Raleigh's picture
Submitted by Sandy - Raleigh on

On the "can a defense be worth 100 runs in a season" question.

2007: Tampa:
944 runs allowed: TTO results: 7.5-K/9; 3.6-BB/9; 1.3-HR/9 -- 1649 hits allowed (1/11/14/14 ranks in K/BB/HR/Hits)
2008: Tampa:
671 runs allowed: TTO results: 7.1-K/9; 3.2-BB/9; 1.0-HR/9 -- 1349 hits allowed (3/8/9/2 ranks in K/BB/HR/Hits)

2007 FIP 4.70 -- actual ERA 5.53 (.83 run defensive cost)
2008 FIP 4.22 -- actual ERA 3.82 (-0.41 run defensive advantage)

Swing in actual runs scored: 273.
Estimated run saving by pitching (.48 * 162 = 78)
Estimated run saving by defense (1.24 * 162 = 201) -- E-F method
Estimate run saving by defense (195) -- difference between FIP savings and actual.

wily mo's picture
Submitted by wily mo on

here's aardsma's april 07: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 8 H, 23/6 K/BB. he was toast by june.

Lana  's picture
Submitted by Lana on

Hello, I think, that this article is very good, but it is a little bit outdated, I hope you will update you blog soon, so I will check it in a few days.

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